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“Moore’s Law Is Over” – Three Predictions About the Computers of Tomorrow

9/30/2018

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 Moore's law – the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years while the costs are halved. 
          Gordon Moore, Fairchild Semiconductor (1965)
 
"Moore's Law is over," says Mike Muller, chief technology officer at chip designer Arm, the Japanese-owned company whose processor cores are found inside most mobile phones.

Given Moore's Law has been the engine driving the breakneck pace at which computers have advanced over the past 50 years this statement might seem worrying.

"On one level it's true, but I'd say, certainly from my perspective and Arm's perspective, we don't care," he says.

Muller and his colleagues have good reasons for their indifference to the end of Moore's Law.

For one, the bulk of Arm-based processors are sold into the embedded computing market, where there is still plenty of scope for transistors to get smaller and chips to get faster.

But more importantly, Arm believes the regular boosts to computing performance that used to come from Moore's Law will continue and will instead stem from changes to how chips are designed.

Here are three ways that Arm expects processor design will evolve and advance.
 
1. 3D chips will continue to improve processor performance. Muller believes chip designers will continue to squeeze more power from processors by stacking more transistors and processor dies on top of each other.

"There's a whole bunch of stuff happening in 3D, whether that's within the silicon and 3D transistors stacking within a die, [or] stacking dies together," he said.

2. Computers will rely on increasingly specialized chips. Today's systems offload workloads to processors tailored to accelerate tasks. For example, offloading 3D rendering to GPUs or running trained machine-learning models on Google's TPUs, Muller predicts future systems will have an even more full range of specialized chips.

Greg Yeric, director of Future Silicon Technology for Arm Research, says there's plenty of runway to continue improving accelerators.

"For the next three to five years there's a lot to be gained just by making better CMOS-based machine learning," he says.

3. Computers will move beyond silicon chips. Soon, it's possible we will reach the limits of conventional materials and technologies used to build processors, such as the CMOS (Complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor) chips used today, says Yeric.

At this point, the chips inside systems will become more diverse, with traditional CMOS chips sitting alongside more exotic forms of information processors.

"We're going to start to see accelerators that are hardware differentiated," says Yeric.

"So, you can have a special kind of transistor that does one thing really well, [which] doesn't necessarily do all [computing] well, and you can have a chip that bolts onto a regular CMOS chip.

"We have widgets that vastly outperform CMOS on certain things. It could be photonics; it could be spintronics; it could be new memory.

"Architecting those systems is going to be a bit more of a challenge. However, I really don't see that we're going to have a slowdown at the system level, it's just that the systems won't look like a big monolithic piece of CMOS."

Muller says to expect the likes of neuromorphic, spintronics, and even quantum photonic chips to find their way inside systems.

"There is going to be in the 10-15-year timeframe new technology to take us beyond CMOS," he says.
"Products, as bought by people like you and me, are just going to keep getting better and better.
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"Our jobs [chip designers] might be getting harder and harder, but from a consumer's perspective there isn't going to be a slowing down," he says.

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The Largest Internet Company in 2030

9/23/2018

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Thirty years ago, it was a big deal when schools got their first computers. Today, it's a big deal when students get their own laptops.

According to Thomas Frey, the senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute think tank, “In 14 years it'll be a big deal when students learn from robot teachers over the Internet.”

It's not just because the technology will be that sophisticated, Frey says, but because the company responsible for it will be the largest of its kind.

"I've been predicting that by 2030 the largest company on the Internet is going to be an education-based company that we haven't heard of yet," Frey said.

Frey's prediction comes amid a boom in artificial intelligence research. Google is developing DeepMind; a complex piece of machine-learning software and IBM is developing Watson-powered robots.

"Nobody has quite cracked the code for the future of education," Frey contends.

His vision for 2030 includes a massively enhanced version of today's open online courses – the kind of instruction you may find with Khan Academy, Coursera, or MIT OpenCourseWare. Only, the instructors won't be humans beamed through videos. They'll be bots, and they'll be smart enough to personalize each lesson plan to the student sitting in front of the screen.

Frey suspects that a new kind of efficiency will allow students to learn at much faster rates than if they had to compete with 19 other students for the teacher's attention. Students will breeze through their material at four or 10 times the speed, completing an undergraduate education in less than half a year.

"It learns what your proclivities are, it learns what your idiosyncrasies are," Frey explains. "It learns what your interests are, your reference points. And it figures out how to teach you in a faster way over time."

He uses the example of Google's DeepMindlearning to play the Atari video game "Breakout." Not only did it quickly pick up on the rules, but within a half hour it figured out a way to achieve incredibly high scores – all with little human input.

Machine learning will accelerate similarly in the education space, Frey says. Online bots will pick up on a student's strengths and weaknesses and use a series of algorithms to tailor the lessons accordingly. Research suggeststhis personalized method is among the most effective at raising kids' overall achievement.
Frey doesn't go so far as to argue education bots will replace traditional schooling outright. He sees them more as a supplement or a kind of tutor. If a child struggles with algebra, a bot may be able to offer some help during homework time or over the weekend.

It's up for debate whether AI can master the subtleties of language, thought, and reason all within the next 14 years. One of the most significant hurdles for machine learning is grasping social interactions. Many AI systems today are still less capable cognitively than a 6-year-old.

Frey trusts 14 years isn't too generous a timeline for the technology to ramp up, given how quickly technology innovation builds on itself. The Internet was beginning to enter a lot of people's homes 14 years ago. But by 2007 people were already surfing the Web on their iPhones, and today the Internet is almost omnipresent in daily life.
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Frey predicts that artificial intelligence will have the same trajectory in the education space. By 2030, DeepMind's ability to master "Breakout" could seem as quaint as dial-up modems do today, and what seemed like a massive library of online content in 2016 could look to future students like a skimpy collection that hardly does anything.
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France Bans Phones in School

9/16/2018

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Last Monday was the first day that French schoolchildren under 15 could not use their cellphones at any point during the school day, thanks to a new nationwide law.

The ban, passed in July following a campaign pledge made by French President Emmanuel Macron, will affect elementary and junior high schools across the country as they return from the summer break.

The new law, which went into effect on August 5, bans all types of cellphones, as well as tablets and smartwatches.

While a ban on cellphones during class hours was already in place since 2010, the new law extends to breaks and mealtimes.

Schools are free to choose themselves if they implement the ban for students over 15. There are also some exceptions to the prohibition, such as for students with disabilities.

Under the new law, students have to turn their phones off during the day or put them in lockers. Schools will independently deal with the logistics of how students will be kept away from their phones.

The law was introduced amid fears that students were becoming too dependent on and distracted by their smartphones.
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Education Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer in June hailed the legislation as "a law for the 21st century," and said it would improve discipline among France's 12 million schoolchildren.

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If You Deposit Checks Through a Mobile App, Start Adding This Phrase

9/9/2018

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You may have recently gotten a message from your bank that, yes, you should read and act upon.
The message being sent by many banks involves a small, but crucial change affecting check deposits made using bank mobile apps on smartphones and other devices.

Depositors must now include the phrase “For Mobile Deposit Only” underneath their signature on all checks deposited using mobile apps. Some banks are also suggesting you add "For Mobile Deposit Only at (Bank Name)" or "For (BANK NAME) Mobile Deposit Only."

This new endorsement requirement, instituted by the Federal Reserve, officially went into effect July 1. It applies to all mobile deposits at all financial institutions, such as PNC Bank, Capital Oneand Legend Bankin Texas.

Without the inclusion of the new phrase, banks say the check may be returned with the notification that your “deposit was rejected due to restrictive endorsement."

The change is meant to protect banks from fraud, which can occur when a check is accidentally, or intentionally, presented at a bank after it already has been deposited via mobile. 

"It’s not like there was rampant fraud, but it was just an area they wanted to tighten up," said Michael Diamond, senior vice president of payments at Mitek Systems, which has digital transaction technology used by more than 6,100 banks.

"This is the banks taking care of themselves," Diamond said. "The channel is very, very, very safe, and the growth is great. More and more people are using it." 
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Case in point: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said last month that during the April to June period, more customers deposited checks using the bank’s mobile app than in person at bank branches. Overall, 76% of all deposits come through ATMs and mobile deposits, he said.
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Mandatory Keys Cut Phishing Attacks on Google to Zero

9/2/2018

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Google might have just made itself the most significant example of how security keyscan work better than other forms of multi-factor authentication. According to Krebs on Security,ever since Google required over 85,000 of its employees to use physical security keys instead of one-time codes in 2017, it hasn't had a single case of account takeover from phishing. "We have had no reported or confirmed account takeovers since implementing security keys at Google," a company spokesperson said. "Users might be asked to authenticate using their security key for many different apps/reasons. It all depends on the sensitivity of the app and the risk of the user at that point in time."

Security keys like the one made by Yubikey give you a way to log into a website by merely plugging it in and pressing a button. You don't even need to type in your password anymore, much less generate a one-time code. While the method has its weakness, considering it relies on a physical item you can lose, it's considered safer than two-factor authentication, especially the type that sends you codes via SMS. Hackers could intercept messages sent to your device, after all, and gain entry to your account that way.
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Unfortunately, Universal 2nd Factor (U2F) – that's what you call the type of multi-factor authentication that uses physical keys – support is pretty limited at the moment. You can already depend on it for protection on Chrome, but you'd have to manually activate it on Firefox by going to "about:config" first. Microsoft won't be rolling out U2F compatibility for Edgeuntil later this year, and Apple has yet to reveal whether Safari will ever support the standard. Further, only a few websites and services can use it, including Facebook and password managers such as Keepass and LastPass. It remains to be seen if Google's positive experience with the standard can help it become more widespread, but it's the kind of meaningful testimonial that could give it a massive boost.

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    Author

    Rick Richardson, CPA, CITP, CGMA

    Rick is the editor of the weekly newsletter, Technology This Week. You can subscribe to it by visiting the website.

    Rick is also the Managing Partner of Richardson Media & Technologies, LLC. Prior to forming his current company, he had a 28-year career in technology with Ernst & Young, the last twelve years of which he served as National Director of Technology.

    Mr. Richardson has been named to the "Technology 100"- the annual honors list of the 100 key achievers in technology in America. He has also been honored by the American Institute of CPAs with two Lifetime Achievement awards and a Special Career Recognition Award for his contributions to the profession in the field of technology.

    In 2012, Rick was inducted into the Accounting Hall of Fame by CPA Practice Advisor Magazine. He has also been named to the 100 most influential individuals in the accounting profession in America by Accounting Today magazine.

    In 2017, Rick was inducted as a Marquis Who’s Who Lifetime Achiever, a registry of professionals who have excelled in their fields for many years and achieved greatness in their industry.

    He is a sought after speaker around the world, providing his annual forecast of future technology trends to thousands of business executives, professionals, community leaders, educators and students.

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